The Ecomm Analyst

Growing stores, one honest take at a time.

What email actually does for revenue (and how to stop overcounting it)

Klaviyo’s revenue numbers are too high. So are Meta’s. So are Google’s. None of them are lying, but all of them are claiming the same orders.

If you’ve ever wondered why your channels add up to more than 100% of revenue, this is why. Each platform claims credit for any conversion it can plausibly touch. Klaviyo will count any order from a subscriber who opened or clicked within the attribution window, even if that person was going to buy anyway because they saw an Instagram ad three hours earlier and remembered they wanted the new colorway.

I’m not dunking on Klaviyo. The reports are useful for what they are. The trap is treating “Klaviyo revenue” as a clean answer to “what is email worth?”

A more useful question, in my experience. What does email do that wasn’t going to happen anyway?

A few practical ways to get closer to that answer.

Look at flow revenue separately from campaign revenue. Flow revenue (welcome series, browse abandonment, post-purchase) is usually closer to incremental because it’s triggering behavior. Campaign revenue (newsletters, promo blasts) is much more contested. Someone on your list who buys after a 20% off email might have bought anyway when the sale hit Instagram.

Run holdouts on engaged segments. I’ll pull a randomly selected 5-10% of an engaged segment that gets no campaign for a defined window. The lift over that group is closer to true email contribution than the headline Klaviyo number.

Cross-check against an attribution platform applying consistent rules. I use ThoughtMetric here because it grades email by the same logic as paid social, search, and affiliate. If Klaviyo says a flow drove $40K and ThoughtMetric data-driven says $22K, the truth is somewhere in there. That’s a much more useful range than either number alone.

The honest answer for most stores. Email is doing real work, just less than the dashboard suggests. The good news is that flows are usually doing more of the heavy lifting than people think, and campaigns less. Knowing which is which changes how you spend your build hours.

5 responses to “What email actually does for revenue (and how to stop overcounting it)”

  1. How to measure SMS revenue without double-counting – The Ecomm Analyst Avatar

    […] attribution settings so you know which rule it uses. Email has the same issue, which I covered in email revenue overcounting and what Klaviyo counts as email […]

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  2. How to attribute gift card sales on Shopify – The Ecomm Analyst Avatar

    […] If you can identify orders that used a gift card at checkout, report them separately for the first quarter of the year. You will usually find that a meaningful share of your January revenue is gift card redemptions, and your underlying January performance looks a little weaker than the headline. I wrote about a similar overcounting pattern in email revenue overcounting. […]

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  3. How to measure Shopify Email revenue – The Ecomm Analyst Avatar

    […] Shopify Email mostly reaches people already on your list, which means most of the revenue it gets credit for comes from returning customers. That is fine, but report it that way. If your email revenue looks great while your new customer count is falling, the email program is not hiding the problem, it is just not the right tool for it. The general version of this problem is in email revenue overcounting. […]

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  4. How to measure loyalty program revenue on Shopify – The Ecomm Analyst Avatar

    […] often find more revenue than your store actually did. I walked through the email side of this in email revenue overcounting, and loyalty has the same […]

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  5. Attribution tools for wine and spirits brands – The Ecomm Analyst Avatar

    […] For many wineries the tasting room is the biggest acquisition channel, and it never shows up in a pixel. Capture email at the counter, tag those signups by source in Klaviyo, and ask “tasting room or event” in your post-purchase survey. When the first online order from a tasting room visitor arrives through an email click, your email tool will claim it. The survey and the signup source tell you where that customer actually came from. Email’s tendency to claim too much is covered in email revenue overcounting. […]

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About

Six years in e-commerce. Three Shopify stores across different niches, one scaled past seven figures. I’ve tested hundreds of ad creatives, obsessed over email flows, and learned more from my failures than my wins.

Now I focus on conversion optimization, retention marketing, and the analytics behind it all. This blog is where I share what actually works, backed by real numbers. No fluff, no guru energy.